We are now less than two months away from the presidential and congressional elections.
Already, there are reports of long lines for early voting. Donald Trump is ramping up his attacks on mail in ballots. Micheal Moore is predicting doom and gloom based upon his view of voting dynamics in the State of Michigan. Polls show Biden leading in key states and the race tightening in others.
Everyone is all over the place when it comes to this election. National polls show Biden leading, polls in the state of Michigan show the race getting closer in that state prompting Moore’s sounding of the alarm.
It is hard to filter through all of the political news. However, there is one constant. A state by state analysis is important to help us uinderstand who is leading in the electoral college vote. It is that vote that counts and where the candidates stand in each state with the popular vote will determine the winner.
Take Pennsylvania, for example:
"Polling finds that Trump continues to draw strong support from blue collar and rural areas, while Biden's backing is growing among suburban women — many who backed Trump last time — and more urban locations. Each camp has visited the state several times in recent weeks, with plans for more to come.
Experts said the mail-in voting will favor Biden, while Trump garners more from traditional Republicans who prefer in-person ballots. Turnout is expected to be strong and likely greater than 2016 given that many Clinton voters stayed home last time and Biden's backers are expected to turnout more…" USA TODAY
Then there are the key states of Arizona and North Carolina:
"Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is ahead by 9 percentage points in Arizona and remains virtually tied with President Donald Trump in North Carolina, according to a new survey of the swing states’ likely voters.
…the poll shows the two major-party candidates separated by only one percentage point in North Carolina, with 45 percent of likely voters backing Biden and 44 supporting Trump.
In 2016, Trump won Arizona by 4.1 percentage points and won North Carolina by 3.8 percentage points.
The Times/Siena survey also has Biden with a lead of 17 percentage points among likely voters in Maine, 55-38 percent.
Democratic presidential candidates have carried Maine in previous election cycles, but Hillary Clinton won there by only 2.7 percentage points in 2016.
All three states are key to Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate." Politico
These are the polls to watch, key states delivering the electoral college to one candidate or another. Right now the dynamics are in favor of Biden, but with the polls tightening in important states, the dynamics could change.
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