The gap between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is narrowing. Voter enthusiasm is high. Of significance is the narrow lead Biden has in states impacting the electoral college. Therefore, Donald Trump may be able to win the election.
“...on the eve of the party conventions, a majority of voters (53%) are ‘extremely enthusiastic’ about voting in this year's election, a new high in CNN polling in presidential election cycles back to 2003.
Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden's advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%. It is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.
Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.” (CNN)
There is an important but to these polling results...
...the survey suggests that Trump's voters are a bit more likely to say that they could change their minds by November (12% say so) than are Biden's backers (7%).” (CNN)
Typically, as the election draws closer the polling results tighten. Moreover, after the respective conventions, voters may also solidify their positions on the candidate they will vote for in November. Finally, poll numbers will change as we draw closer to the election.
Click here to read “CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high” By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Also of note, polling shows Biden’s selection of Kampala Harris is seen as a good one. From the same CNN polling report...
“Biden's selection of Harris is rated as excellent or pretty good by most (52%), and 57% say it reflects favorably on Biden's ability to make important presidential decisions. Most say she is qualified to be president should that be necessary (57%). And a majority, 62%, say her selection does not have much effect on their vote. People of color, though, are more likely than White people to say her selection makes them more likely to back Biden (28% among people of color, 18% among whites).”
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