In 2016 many voters voted for the candidate they did not hate the most. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were two of the most disliked candidates in political history. Moreover, Clinton may have won the popular vote, but she did not target and focus on key voting areas. Her strategic errors caused her to lose important votes in important electoral states.
Overall, Biden is more popular than Clinton was in 2016. Moreover, after 4 years in office Trump's approval rating stinks. "41.5%. Trump’s approval in the RealClearPolitics average is just 41.5%, compared to a 56% disapproval rating." Forbes
Trump's approval rating is not getting better.
The dynamics have changed. NPR also cites to four factors giving Biden the advantage:
"1. Trump appears to have a ceiling of 46%: More concerning for the Trump campaign than a slippage in the polls is the very real possibility that he hasn't gotten higher against Biden than the 46% of the popular vote he got in 2016.
Trump's 45.6% average of the polls at the end of February was his peak against Biden over the last 10 months. What's more, in hundreds of surveys, Trump has only reached even 47% in a few.
2. The third-party vote share is likely to be lower: Roughly 6% of voters in 2016 voted third-party, the highest percentage since 1996. That helped Trump win the Electoral College. But the percentage of people voting third-party in 2020 this fall is likely to be lower for multiple reasons, including:
3. People don't dislike Biden as much as they did Clinton: Trump and Clinton were the two of the most disliked presidential candidates in American history.
There will probably be books written on what that says about Americans and gender in U.S. politics, but there just isn't the same disdain for Biden that there was for Clinton.
The fact that Biden's "very negative" score is 10 points lower than Clinton's is significant. It might not only contribute to fewer third-party votes, but also reduce vitriol toward Biden that may mean potential Trump voters will be less fired up to turn out to cast a vote (or mail one in)." NPR
Although the negatives outweigh the positives, Biden's numbers are significantly better than Clinton. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that Biden and Trump won't be two of the most disliked candidates for president in modern political history. Instead, Trump may occupy the position of being one of the most disliked candidates in modern political history and being more disliked now than he was in 2016.
Polling trends are showing a continuing pattern, and that pattern is not favorable to Donald Trump. Although the polling may change as we draw closer to the elections, the developing patterns of feelings among voters favor Biden.
Of course, as we always say polls don't necessarily predict winners. However, polling patterns and current events may give an insight as to who may have the advantage going into the election.
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All the president is, is a glorified public relations man who spends his time flattering, kissing, and kicking people to get them to do what they are supposed to do anyway.
Harry S Truman
“Pro and con are opposites, that fact is clearly seen. If progress means to move forward, then what does congress mean?”
― Nipsey Russell
The court is really the keeper of the conscience, and the conscience is the Constitution.
William O. Douglas