Our take: Polling and predictions are somewhat risky. However, with this said, looking at each individual state, assessing the data available for that state and watching trends can give a picture of election dynamics at that point in time. Right now, the electoral map may be shifting in Donald Trump's favor. If the trends continue, Trump may be more competitive than earlier polls indicated. It will be important to watch the trends in the month of October as voter positions solidify.
(CNN) "The big news came out of the Cook Political Report, one of the preeminent political handicapping services in the country, which moved two states -- Florida and Nevada -- in the President's direction. Florida moved from 'lean Democrat' to 'Toss Up,' while Nevada went from 'Likely Democrat' to 'Lean Democrat.'
'Biden's Electoral College lead has narrowed to 279 to 187 for Trump,' wrote Cook's Amy Walter of the moves. 'Earlier this summer, Biden held a 308 to 187 lead.'
Also on Thursday, The Economist updated its electoral model, writing this:
'In early June The Economist published its own statistical forecasting model for this November's presidential contest to guide such handicapping. Back then, it gave Donald Trump at best a one-in-five chance of winning a second term. But by July, as unrest and the coronavirus ravaged the nation, his odds had slumped to as low as one-in-ten. There they stayed until the middle of August. Now, our model shows Mr Trump has clawed back a sizeable chunk of support.'"
As the election draws closer, polling may be able to give us a clearer picture of the election dynamics. With that said, modern day polling has proven to be difficult and not necessarily an accurate predictor as 2016 showed.
What is important is watching trends on a state by state basis to see where the electoral vote is going.
Read: Is Donald Trump starting to make an electoral comeback? Analysis by Chris Cillizza
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