Preserving The Power Of Democracy
This has been a tough and emotional election season. During the 2020 election process people were deriding the polls saying how wrong they are, condemning the pundits for their bias, and unfortunately criticizing the election process itself. After surviving an emotional political season, I have to say that the media, the professionals, and the polling experts were not always right on target, but they were not totally off base either. Here is why.
On election Day I made the following predictions on key swing states Texas, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina (which are important to my ultimate point):
I was wrong about Texas - Here is what I said.
Georgia. I was wrong about Osoff and Perdue because Osoff did not win but made it into a runoff. However, I was right about Biden. Here is what I said-
Voter turnout was heavy, the Biden win slim, but this red state is turning blue. I am particularly happy about calling this state right when it came to the Biden lead (and ultimate win which now appears inevitable.) If I am proven wrong Georgia is changing, and that is a valid point.
I was right about Michigan but wrong about the margin of victory which as 2.7% points.
I was right about Wisconsin but wrong about the margin of victory. The Biden margin of victory is .7%.
I was right about Arizona but wrong about the margin of victory. The Biden margin of victory is .7%.
I was right about Pennsylvania but wrong about the margin of victory. Biden won by .5%.
I was wrong about Florida.
Trump won the state by 3.3%.
Finally, I was right about North Carolina. Here is what I said about North Carolina.
Trump won by 1.4%, closer than I thought.
Out of 8 states I called 6 of them right. I did not get the margins of victory, but I was correctly called the winner in each. The reason I am making this point is because the predictions were based on polling trends over time, observations about the political climate, Donald Trump’ abrasive personality and the feeling that there would be high voter turnout. Part of the prediction was based on feelings, on reading between the lines and trying to get in tune with how most Americans feel about what is happening in politics and in our nation.
I also want to point out I made a similar prediction of victory for Biden in another post, using intuition and empathy to predict the Biden win. I discounted the polls and the numbers. The prediction was based on intuition and a gut feeling (click here to read what I said).
My point, polls and pundits are not dead. What we need to remember is elections are not only about polls, but they are about voter feelings and thoughts. We must consider the entire political atmosphere in which we live considering feelings, polls, emotions, the economy, health, and how these things impact real people living in the real world. Some of this is based on gut feelings.
We have talented people looking at the world of politics. The media is not our enemy. However, what we need to do is use some critical thinking and always check out the facts.
I was right about the victories in 6 out of 8 states, and I would encourage you, as reader, to pay particular attention to what I said about Georgia. That state is a foreshadowing of what is coming as it relates to the future political climate of this nation.
Finally, I did say there would be a record turnout.
60 million are expected to the polls [on Election Day]. If this is the case, Americans want their voice heard and will do so in record numbers.
I was over the mark. 145,456,415 people voted not the numbers I predicted (which is disappointing, but people still voted in record numbers). Most important, both candidates got more votes than any candidate for President before them.
My final point, critical thinking matters and with critical thinking based on data, feelings, and facts we can understand the world of politics and elections…
Won’t you join me in the adventure?
Preserving The Power of Democracy
onepolitics - explore politics with us.