From this point forward, expect a consistent flow of news on polling. As the election draws closer, pay attention to whether there is a consistent stream of information showing either a wider spread between Trump and Biden or a narrowing of the spread between Trump and Biden. Trends may matter, and if you continue to follow the trends as Election Day draws closer the ability to forecast the results becomes more credible.
Although, with polling these days forecasting remains risky business. With this said, here is some updated polling news on the presidential election:
Axios reports: The big picture: Biden has an 8.7-point lead on President Trump in FiveThirtyEight's averageof national polls. The president has seen his poll numbers tank since the coronavirus pandemic began, and as Americans took to the streets to protest the death of George Floyd in cities around the country.
The state of play: Silver's same model gave Trump a 29% chance on Election Day 2016 — higher than most forecasters at the time.
‘This is not quite the same situation as 2016, when the polls were actually pretty close,’ Silver said. ‘This year, Trump is not very close to Joe Biden. Instead the issue is that he still has a lot of time to catch up.’
The model gives a 10% chance of Trump again winning the Electoral College but not the popular vote — like what happened in 2016.
Yes, but: Silver said, ‘uncertainties related to COVID-19,’ like what the economy will look like in November, make the election especially unpredictable.
"It's simply too soon for a model or for anybody else to be all that confident about what is going to happen," Silver said.
Silver's bottom line: ‘Yes, Trump definitely still has a shot at re-election.’"
Therefore, at this stage Trump still can win the election. There are a lot of factors in play, and it is more than the uncertainties related to Covid-19. There is the economy, and if it is in an upward swing close to the election, it is important to remember that people vote their pocketbooks.
However, Biden continues his consistent lead, in most polling over Trump.
(ABC News) “A welcome reception for Sen. Kamala Harris and rising enthusiasm for Joe Biden mark President Donald Trump's challenges in the 2020 election, as do two realities on the ground: just 14% of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say the coronavirus pandemic is under control, and two-thirds say the economy is in bad shape -- the most since October 2014, when voters reacted with a vengeance.”
There are two things worth repeating…the polling reveals that the public does not think the Coronavirus is under control. Strike number one for Trump. Perhaps most important is the belief by 2/3 of the respondents believe the economy is in bad shape. The belief that the economy is in bad shape make it strike 2 and 3 against Trump. Unless that feeling changes, Trump is out.
It is important to remember that there is one constant in politics: It is the economy, stupid. A bad economy with a bad virus…well, you know the result.
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